Nottingham Forest is predicted to struggle with UEFA’s financial regulations as they return to European competition after 30 years. The Reds are rated third favorites to win the Europa League, but owner Evangelos Marinakis is concerned about breaching UEFA rules.
Why Nottingham Forest May Breach UEFA Regulations
- Football Earnings Test: Forest’s financial statements for 2022-23, 2023-24, and 2024-25 will be assessed. Despite increased revenue last season, they won’t meet the required threshold, making a breach likely.
- Squad Cost Ratio Rule: This is a one-year, calendar-year test. Forest can still address the issue in January, but significantly weakening the squad would be necessary to meet the 70% limit, which doesn’t align with their current trajectory ¹.
Potential Punishments
- Nottingham Forest will likely reach a settlement with UEFA, similar to Chelsea and Aston Villa’s recent cases.
- The punishment may include a three-year plan with:
- Year 1: More relaxed requirements
- Years 2-3: More significant financial adjustments
- Football Earnings Breach: May lead to sporting sanctions like player registration or competition bans
- Squad Cost Ratio Breach: Less severe punishments, potentially treated as a “luxury tax” if not consistently breached ¹ ²
