The race for the NBA’s Most Valuable Player award may be nearing its conclusion — and all signs are pointing toward Shai Gilgeous-Alexander emerging as the winner.
After leading the Oklahoma City Thunder to a championship last season and guiding them to the best record in the league this year, Gilgeous-Alexander has firmly established himself as one of the NBA’s elite. Now, with the regular season winding down, circumstances beyond his control could all but seal a second consecutive MVP award.
Jokic’s Availability Could Decide the Race
Denver Nuggets superstar Nikola Jokic has been Gilgeous-Alexander’s main competition throughout the season. Once again, Jokic has delivered staggering numbers, even averaging a triple-double — a feat that typically puts any player at the front of the MVP conversation.
However, there’s a crucial factor working against him: games played.
Jokic has featured in just 63 games so far this season. To remain eligible for MVP consideration, he must meet the league’s minimum game requirement, meaning he needs to appear in at least two of Denver’s final three games.
If he fails to do so, he would be ruled out of contention entirely — effectively clearing the path for Gilgeous-Alexander to claim the award.
A Complicated End to the Season for Denver
Whether Jokic reaches that threshold remains uncertain. The Nuggets face a challenging end to the regular season, with matchups against the Memphis Grizzlies, Oklahoma City Thunder, and San Antonio Spurs.
While Memphis may not pose a significant threat, the remaining fixtures are far from straightforward. With playoff positioning already largely secured, Denver could opt to prioritize rest and player health over pushing for wins.
That strategy could have major implications.
Currently sitting as the No. 3 seed in the Western Conference, the Nuggets may also be considering potential playoff matchups. A first-round clash with the Minnesota Timberwolves — a team that eliminated them in the 2024 playoffs — is far from ideal.
By carefully managing their final games, including potentially resting Jokic, Denver could attempt to influence their postseason path while also protecting their star player from fatigue or injury.
SGA’s Case Already Strong
Even without Jokic’s uncertain status, Gilgeous-Alexander has built a compelling MVP case.
He has been the driving force behind Oklahoma City’s dominance this season, combining elite scoring, leadership, and consistency. His performances have elevated the Thunder to the top of the standings and reinforced his status as one of the league’s most complete players.
While San Antonio Spurs star Victor Wembanyama has also entered the conversation with an outstanding season, many believe Gilgeous-Alexander still holds the edge in overall impact and team success.
A Matter of Timing
The final outcome of the MVP race could be decided sooner rather than later. If Jokic sits out two of the remaining games, the debate may effectively be over before the regular season concludes.
For Gilgeous-Alexander, it would mark a historic achievement — securing back-to-back MVP awards and further cementing his place among the NBA’s elite.
All Eyes on the Final Stretch
As the regular season reaches its climax, attention will remain fixed on Denver’s lineup decisions as much as on performances on the court.
If Jokic plays and meets the eligibility criteria, the race could go down to the wire. But if he doesn’t, the award may already have a destination.
And barring any late surprises, that destination looks set to be Oklahoma City.
