As the Toronto Raptors prepare for a high-stakes campaign following their blockbuster trade for Kawhi Leonard, analysts and fans are eyeing internal milestones that could define the franchise’s next era. Among the bold predictions highlighted in ESPN’s future power rankings for the Raptors’ 2027-29 stretch is the expectation that star forward Scottie Barnes will capture a coveted Defensive Player of the Year award.
Barnes has rapidly evolved into one of the most versatile, disruptive defenders in the NBA. Capable of switching onto any position, racking up elite numbers in steals and blocks, and anchoring one of the league’s toughest defensive units, Barnes earned his first All-Defensive Second Team nod last year. With his trajectory pointing straight upward, a First Team selection and serious DPOY candidacy feel increasingly inevitable.
However, standing directly in his path is a towering 7-foot-4 obstacle.
The Wembanyama Roadblock
Victor Wembanyama entered the association as one of the most hyped prospects in basketball history and has done nothing short of exceeding those astronomical expectations. After capturing the 2026 Defensive Player of the Year award and leading a young San Antonio Spurs squad all the way to the NBA Finals in just his third season, Wembanyama has established himself as a defensive juggernaut. With an 8-foot wingspan and averages of over three blocks and a steal per game across his first three years, winning the award while Wembanyama is on the floor will remain a monumental challenge for anyone in the league.
Yet, even a generational talent like Wembanyama has an Achilles’ heel: availability.
The most games Wembanyama has played in a single regular season thus far is 71, and he appeared in just 65 contests (including the NBA Cup Final) last year. If durability concerns or load management continue to hover around his career, it could open a crucial window of opportunity for contenders like Barnes.
As ESPN’s Ben Golliver noted:
“Wembanyama will be the award’s heavy favorite for the next decade, but the Spurs star has averaged just 60 games per season during his three-year career. With San Antonio needing to pace itself for deep playoff runs and the NBA’s 65-game rule potentially impacting Wembanyama’s eligibility, Barnes should get the opportunity for some individual recognition.”
How the Kawhi Leonard Trade Boosts Barnes’s Case
Fortunately for Barnes, the Raptors’ summer splash—bringing Kawhi Leonard back to Toronto—could significantly elevate his DPOY resume.
While Leonard is no longer the perimeter lockdown defender he was during his prime championship years in Toronto, his presence represents a massive defensive upgrade over Brandon Ingram. Teaming Leonard up with Barnes, alongside the continuous internal growth of young pieces like Ja’Kobe Walter and Collin Murray-Boyles, gives the Raptors the personnel to potentially eclipse their status as the fifth-best defense in the association.
Historically, team success is a massive prerequisite for the award. Four of the last five DPOY winners—Wembanyama, Rudy Gobert, Jaren Jackson Jr., and Marcus Smart—anchored teams that finished the regular season inside the top three in defensive rating. If Toronto’s elite team defense reaches those heights, it will create the ideal ecosystem for Barnes’s candidacy to soar.
If Wembanyama misses time due to the league’s strict 65-game award eligibility threshold or pacing for deep postseason runs, Scottie Barnes is uniquely positioned to swoop in, shatter the monopoly, and bring a Defensive Player of the Year trophy back to Toronto.
