The San Antonio Spurs are currently enjoying a golden era. Coming off a season where they finished with the second-best record in the NBA and are currently locked in a heated playoff battle with the Minnesota Timberwolves, the lottery is likely the last thing on the minds of fans in the 210.
However, a “ridiculous” new rule change currently being weighed by the NBA Board of Governors could have devastating ripple effects on San Antonio’s draft treasure chest—specifically their highly-coveted 2031 first-round pick swap with the Sacramento Kings.
The “3-2-1” Reform: A War on Tanking
The league is moving closer to adopting the “3-2-1 Lottery” proposal, an anti-tanking measure designed to curb “overt behavior” intended to secure top picks. Under the current system, the three worst teams have the best odds (14.1%) at the No. 1 pick. The new proposal flips the script:
- The Relegation Zone: The teams with the three worst records are actually penalized, losing a lottery ball and seeing their odds drop.
- The Sweet Spot: Teams finishing in the 4-10 range become the new favorites, receiving equal odds (8%) for the top overall selection.
- Expansion: The lottery would expand from 14 to 16 teams, including losers of the No. 7 vs. No. 8 Play-In games.
Why the Spurs Get Screwed
The Spurs own the right to swap their 2031 first-round pick with the Sacramento Kings. Given that the Kings have made the playoffs only once in the last 18 seasons, this has long been viewed as the “crown jewel” of the Spurs’ future assets.
Under the old rules, if the Kings were predictably terrible (bottom three), the Spurs had a massive chance at a top-three pick. Under the “3-2-1” proposal:
- If the Kings are “too bad”: They fall into the relegation zone, and their odds for the No. 1 pick are slashed.
- Increased Volatility: Because the odds are flattened across teams 4 through 10, the “guaranteed” value of being a bottom-feeder is gone. A team that barely misses the playoffs could now leapfrog a truly abysmal Kings team.
The Silver Lining?
It’s not all doom and gloom. As the article notes, the rule is a double-edged sword. If Sacramento manages to be “mediocre-bad” (finishing between 4th and 10th worst), the Spurs would actually benefit from the highest possible odds for the No. 1 pick—odds they wouldn’t have had under the current system unless the Kings were historically awful.
Still, the move from a 14.1% peak to an 8% cap for the “sweet spot” teams represents a significant mathematical nerf to the potential value of that 2031 swap.
Contender Problems
For a Spurs team already built around Victor Wembanyama, Stephon Castle, and Dylan Harper, these 2031 assets are meant to provide a “second wave” of elite talent to sustain a dynasty. With the draft lottery potentially becoming a total crapshoot, the certainty of that “gift” from Sacramento has just been replaced by a giant question mark.
The NBA is expected to hold a final vote on these changes on May 28th. For the Spurs front office, the outcome of that vote might be just as important as the outcome of their current playoff series.
