The football world has been sent into a state of absolute shock following the landmark ruling by an independent commission finding Manchester City guilty of massive financial rule breaches. According to the report, City overinflated their revenues and suppressed costs by a staggering £900 million over a nine-year period spanning from 2009 to 2018.
Naturally, fans across the country—including a vocal contingent of Aston Villa supporters—are baying for blood, demanding the harshest possible penalties, with many calling for City to be expelled entirely from the Premier League.
However, if it ever comes down to a formal vote among the clubs, don’t expect Aston Villa to join the mob. Behind closed doors, the club’s ownership is likely to view the situation through an entirely different lens.
The Numbers Game and the 15-Vote Threshold
According to recent reports from Sky Sports, two senior Premier League executives noted they would be completely “staggered” if 15 clubs were actually willing to vote in favor of expelling City from the league. Under league guidelines, the independent commission can only recommend expulsion, meaning it ultimately requires an overwhelming majority of 15 votes out of the remaining 19 clubs to enforce the ultimate punishment.
While many rival fans feel justice demands a severe expulsion, club boardrooms are forced to think about the bottom line. Executives have already warned that booting out a commercial powerhouse like Manchester City would cost the other Premier League clubs an astronomical amount of money in global broadcasting and sponsorship value. Financial realities often outweigh fan sentiment in modern football boardrooms.
A History of Voting Alignment
When examining how Aston Villa’s leadership operates, their potential sympathy toward Manchester City shouldn’t come as a total surprise.
Back in 2024, Villa stood shoulder-to-shoulder with Manchester City, Newcastle United, and Nottingham Forest in voting against amendments to the Premier League’s associated-party transactions (APT) rules. Those regulations are specifically designed to prevent clubs from artificially inflating sponsorship revenues or cutting costs through connected entities—ironically, the exact core of the charges leveled against City.
Furthermore, Villa’s majority owner, Nassef Sawiris, has been openly critical of the league’s financial framework. In mid-2024, Egypt’s richest man slammed the current spending restrictions as “anti-competitive” and argued that rules limiting ambitious owners from heavily investing make little sense for the growth of the game. While criticizing financial caps is distinct from supporting illegal rule-breaking, Sawiris’s ideological stance closely mirrors the arguments frequently made by City’s legal teams.
Deep Ties to Abu Dhabi and the UAE
Perhaps the most significant factor explaining why Villa won’t push for City’s expulsion lies in Sawiris’s extensive personal and business connections to the United Arab Emirates and Abu Dhabi.
Sawiris previously served as CEO of OCI Global until 2020 and maintained a long-standing board presence. In 2019, OCI Global partnered with Abu Dhabi’s state energy giant, ADNOC, to form Fertiglobe, a massive chemical manufacturing joint venture. That partnership culminated in October 2024 when OCI Global completed the sale of its 50% stake in Fertiglobe to ADNOC for a staggering $3.62 billion (£2.74 billion).
Furthermore, financial reports from Bloomberg highlighted that Sawiris relocated his family office to Abu Dhabi and re-domiciled his investment vehicle, NNS Group, to the UAE capital, closing his London office in the process. Industry reports have also noted that Sawiris shares a notably warm relationship with Manchester City chairman Khaldoon Al Mubarak.
The Bottom Line for Villa Fans
While fans dreaming of fierce sporting justice might hope every rival club turns on Manchester City, the geopolitical and economic reality of modern football is far more complex. Between shared criticisms of financial controls and deep-rooted economic ties to Abu Dhabi, Aston Villa’s leadership is expected to steer clear of joining any crusade to oust the reigning giants from the English top-flight.
Do you think Premier League clubs should unite to expel teams found guilty of major financial breaches, or do financial and business ties inevitably dictate how owners vote?
