Nottingham Forest’s sluggish start to the Premier League campaign reached another frustrating low point following a 3-1 defeat to Crystal Palace at Selhurst Park, extending their recent run to back-to-back losses and a solitary win from their opening six fixtures.
Yet, while surface-level results have placed Oliver Glasner under early media scrutiny ahead of a daunting showdown against title-chasing Arsenal, the narrative surrounding the Austrian manager at the City Ground tells a vastly different story.
City Ground matchgoers are refusing to lay the blame at Glasner’s feet. Instead, deep underlying tactical data reveals that Forest are not suffering from a managerial failure, but rather an unprecedented, statistically historical finishing anomaly that is bound to violently regress back to the mean.
The Underlying Data: Forest Rank 3rd in “Expected Points”
According to comprehensive analytical data from Understat, Forest’s actual league standing (14th) is a total illusion. When examining quality of chances created versus quality of chances conceded, Oliver Glasner’s side mathematically ranks as the third-best team in the entire Premier League.
In terms of expected points (xPTS)—which measures how many points a team should have earned based on the quality of shots taken and allowed per match—Forest sit on 11.42 xPTS, trailing only Mikel Arteta’s Arsenal and Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City.
| Rank | Premier League Team | Expected Points (xPTS) |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 11.99 |
| 2 | Manchester City | 11.72 |
| 3 | Nottingham Forest | 11.42 |
| 4 | Brighton & Hove Albion | 11.19 |
Unrivaled Defending Meets Finishing Nightmare
The staggering disconnect between Forest’s table position and their actual performances comes down to two stark statistical metrics:
- Elite Defensive Foundation: Glasner has transformed Forest into a defensive juggernaut. The Reds boast the second-best expected goals against (xGA) record in the entire division at just 7.26 xGA, second only to league leaders Arsenal.
- Massive Expected Goals (xG) Underperformance: Offensively, Forest have generated a towering 12.24 xG (the third-highest in the top flight). However, they have converted just five actual goals—representing a mind-boggling -7.24 xG underperformance.
No team in the Premier League has squandered more “big chances” than Nottingham Forest (17 missed) through six matches. Primary frontline options like Liam Delap and Chris Wood have repeatedly failed to convert point-blank opportunities, single-handedly turning comfortable victories into narrow defeats or frustrating draws.
Why Evangelos Marinakis Is Trusting the Process
Unlike previous seasons where owner Evangelos Marinakis reacted swiftly to early-season slumps, the Forest hierarchy is fully aware of these underlying metrics. Marinakis recognizes that Glasner’s tactical structure is dominating opposition teams in both penalty boxes; the players simply need to put the ball in the back of the net.
With Arsenal arriving at the City Ground on Sunday, Forest don’t need a radical tactical overhaul or a panic managerial change. They simply need their attackers to start finishing the high-grade chances Glasner’s system continuously produces. Once those big chances start hitting the back of the net, Nottingham Forest are primed to rocket up the Premier League table.
